HouseCanary CEO & Co-Founder Jeremy Sicklick writes in RealClear Markets which data sets to track as the housing market grapples with COVID-19 uncertainty and election year unknowns. In “Will the Housing Rebound Last? The Devil’s in the Data,” Sicklick says last week’s home sale volume was up 13.7% nationwide compared to the week ending March 13, which was the point in which many pandemic restrictions were first implemented. This brings total listings under contract to more than a million since early March. Despite all of this spring’s headwinds, contract volume is down only 0.9% versus the same period last year.
The combination of steady demand, low interest rates and continued access to credit has underpinned a strong homebuying surge over the course of May and June. The market has also greatly benefited from listing agents and sellers gradually adapting to virtual showings and utilizing new online tools to improve remote viewing processes.
But the pandemic is constantly reminding us that markets can shift on a dime. It’s extremely difficult to predict how housing fundamentals and the overall economy will react to a true second wave of COVID-19, the end of the Paycheck Protection Program, the unpredictability of another stimulus package, and uncertainty linked to the 2020 election cycle. A temporary resurgence is certainly no guarantee of long-term stability.
To read more of Sicklick’s piece, click here.
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