HouseCanary Data Points Part II: Forecasting

Forecasting Data Points from HouseCanary inform intelligent investments and responsive portfolio management. Market forecasting is a natural fit for machine learning models, which specialize in processing vast amounts of data. HouseCanary’s data scientists and engineers combine the best of human ingenuity and artificial intelligence to generate sophisticated models that accurately predict the real estate market.

This article is part two of a four-part series. Explore how to use HouseCanary’s property valuation tools to make wiser business decisions with HouseCanary Data Points Part I: Valuation. Discover other ways HouseCanary can support your business in HouseCanary Data Points Part III: Rental Analysis, and HouseCanary Data Points Part IV: Market Analysis.Premium forecasting Data Points

HouseCanary’s rich dataset equips our machine-learning models to generate highly accurate home price indices (HPIs) and forecasts. We use the localized HPI to return a time-adjusted dollar value for a broker price opinion (BPO) that you supply. We curate deep property transaction histories — in some parts of the country, more than 40 years long — to show you the big picture for housing markets.

  • Value Forecast  — proprietary model to forecast property value three years ahead
  • Value HPI Adjusted — BPO, appraisal, or alternative valuation adjusted to past or future date using proprietary HPI for the state, MSA, ZIP code, block group, or block
  • Value Time Series Forecast  — forecast monthly median value and dollars per square foot on the block and block group
  • Value Time Series Historical  — monthly median value and dollars per square foot on the block and block group

Data Points for additional forecast context

HouseCanary’s home price forecasts use the ZIP code-level HPI and our automated valuation model (AVM) to forecast percent of growth or decline. We report for intervals 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, and 36 months into the future, or within a time period you specify. 

  • HPI Forecast — HouseCanary’s proprietary returns forecast based on ZIP-level HPI
    • forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for 1, 2, and 3 years
    • forecast home price appreciation based on HPI forecast for 1, 2, and 3 years
    • historical max percent loss in HPI over any 12-month period
    • risk that this market’s HPI will be lower in 12 months
  • HPI Historical — HouseCanary’s proprietary returns history based on ZIP-level HPI
    • historical compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for 1, 5, 10, and 20 years
    • sale value appreciation based on HPI for the last 1, 5, 10, and 20 years
  • HPI Time Series Forecast — HouseCanary’s monthly HPI forecast for the ZIP code
  • HPI Time Series Historical — HouseCanary’s monthly HPI history for the ZIP code

Data Points on local market details and risks

We provide a full range of analytics assessing the health, desirability, and stability of housing markets so that you can see which way the wind is blowing. 

Our Affordability model forecasts the fraction of median household income needed to maintain median home payments on a 20% down, 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Details at MSA and ZIP code levels include key indicators to help you identify the fastest-appreciating neighborhoods within hot markets. 

We rate ZIP codes using a proprietary Market Grade. Market Grade takes into account median household income, job market, homeowner-to-renter ratio, and more to reveal how a given ZIP code stacks up against the rest of the MSA. We also report Volatility so you can identify stable versus unstable markets.

  • Affordability Time Series Forecast  — monthly forecast of affordability values for state, MSA, metro div, and ZIP code
  • Affordability Time Series History  — monthly history of affordability values for state, MSA, metro div, and ZIP code
  • Details — returns and risk information at the ZIP code and MSA levels
    • historical compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for 1, 5, 10, and 20 years 
    • indexed home price appreciation for the last 1, 5, 10, and 20 years
    • historical max percent loss in HPI over any 12-month period
    • risk that a market’s HPI will be lower in 12 months
    • ZIP-level market metrics for single-family and multi-family homes
    • Market Action score of ZIP-level supply and demand
  • Market Grade  — HouseCanary’s letter grade for a ZIP code within its MSA
  • Volatility — HouseCanary’s metric identifying ZIP-level market volatility based on HPI

Look ahead with HouseCanary

HouseCanary’s forecasting tools support all kinds of real estate operations, from tracking changes in familiar markets to identifying new opportunities. These highly accurate HPIs and insightful market analytics provide the information you need to drive your real estate business. Check out our comprehensive API documentation to see what else we have available.

Interested in more info about the HouseCanary family of home valuation tools? Click to find out more.

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