July 20, 2020

Home Property Values: Blue and Red States are Divided on More Than Just Politics

An image of a donkey and an elephant representing the Democratic and Republican parties

In this contentious presidential election, party preference isn’t the only thing dividing red states and blue states. After applying the industry’s most accurate real estate valuations to every home in the US, HouseCanary found that there is also a significant and growing divide in residential real estate values between red states and blue states.

How big is the divide between residential real estate property values in red states (Republican) vs. blue states (Democrat)? We reviewed three decades of residential real estate data, comparing red states to blue states as projected for this year’s election.  

In infographic showing a distorted map of he US

Our findings are recapped in a comprehensive article featured in an article by The Guardian, Higher housing prices in blue states may affect presidential election.  

As reported by Jana Kasperkevik, reporter at The Guardian:

“Since 1984, blue states have seen their house values go up from an average of $85,000 to $312,000, while red states saw an increase from $75,000 to $184,000. Blue states now account for 77% of the total value of homes in the United States.

Higher housing prices in the liberal-leaning blue states might have a twofold effect on voters’ outlooks: while homeowners feel the benefits of the economic recovery, those who do not own homes are grappling with the effects of income inequality as house prices increase – often out of their reach.”

The Growing Divide in Residential Real Estate Values

HouseCanary’s review of residential real estate values also uncovered the following stats:  

  • 80 percent of $6 trillion in property value creation went to blue statesSince the last election in 2012, real estate has recovered from the deep recession. But the recovery was highly uneven. Of the $6 trillion in property value creation in the U.S. housing market, 80 percent went to blue states.
  • 77 percent of real estate value and wealth in the U.S. is in blue states
  • Of the $27 trillion in total residential real estate values in the U.S., more than $20 trillion is in blue states, and less than $7 trillion is in red states.
  • The three-year property value forecast shows a growing divide While growth is relatively even between red and blue states, blue state homes stand to increase in property value by nearly $40K, compared to $20K for red states.

Today, home ownership is at its lowest level in decades – it will be interesting to see how that changes in the next four years.

A graph showing projected home values in the united states based on red vs. blue state

While I can’t predict our next president, at HouseCanary we can forecast property values. Given that real estate is the largest asset class in the US and the foundation of most Americans’ net worth, I also anticipate that this growing divide will be a story worth watching as the next administration puts policies into place.