Our Method

The Most Accurate Valuations Available Online

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Accurate valuations for 100 million properties

Based on our simulation models and continual feedback loops, we are able to generate the most accurate real estate valuation models available online.
HouseCanary logo 4.9%
MdAPE nationwide
MdAPE

MdAPE is short for median absolute prediction error, and is a statistical measure of the valuation model accuracy. The valuation MdAPE is computed as follows:

Step 1: In any given month, HouseCanary produces and stores a set of 100m property valuations nationwide.

Step 2: Over the next month we obtain actual prices of arms length transactions occurring nationwide.

Step 3: We measure the absolute percent deviation of actual sales prices to what we had estimated the property values to be prior to the observed sale.

Step 4: Finally, the MdAPE is computed as the median absolute percent deviation of all transactions observed nationwide.

In summary, A lower MdAPE indicates a more accurate valuation.

updated January 18th 2017

Monthly Progress

The overall nationwide MdAPE is based on sales observed over the previous trailing 6 months. Recent monthly numbers provide insight into where the overall MdAPE is headed as we continue to collect more data and refine our valuation model. Ideally, numbers for the most recent months should come in less than or equal to the overall MdAPE. This would imply that our overall MdAPE will continue to decrease as older, less accurate, estimates fall out of the 6 month trailing test window.

updated January 18th 2017

How accurate is HouseCanary in your area?

Regardless of where you get your real estate valuation estimates the accuracy will vary across markets due to availability of data
Availability of data
Availability of data refers to both knowledge of salient property characteristics, and also availability of recent sales transactions of comparable properties.
and different factors that affect prices
Variability in prices
Variability in prices refers to the distribution of prices within a given market, i.e., it is more difficult to value properties in a neighborhood where prices range from 100k to 2m than in another neighborhood where prices range from 100k to 300k.
. Click on a state below to see how accurate HouseCanary's valuations are in your area.

A lower MdAPE indicates a more accurate valuation.

*Sample size indicates the number of arms length sales over the last 6 months in which we had an avm estimate prior to the sale price being known. results updated January 18th 2017

Hundreds of data series are taken into account

Residential real estate sales prices are influenced by much more than recent sales prices of nearby homes.

What factors influence housing valuation?

Home with value bubble

We pull sales and listing data from MLS and county assessor records, and pull insights from multiple other sources such as macroeconomic data, capital markets data, mortgage records, search and social data, and house/parcel data.

Visual of HouseCanary pulling data from a range of services
Visual of real estate price trends

Real estate price trends

Visual of comparable housing sales prices

Comparable housing sales prices

Visual of property attributes compared to those of other properties in the area

Property attributes compared to those of other properties in the area

Visual of home improvement history

Home improvement history

Visual of housing inventory within the local market

Housing inventory within the local market

Visual of local economic and employment trends

Local economic and employment trends

Visual of consumer demand and buying behavior

Consumer demand and buying behavior

We use machine learning and data science to run thousands of simulations

We run 8 individual AVMs, each of which executes different valuation models. Every day, we use our unique ensemble methodology to run thousands of simulations for each property we track. We customize the weight we assign to various data sources to account for regional differences in market trends, economic factors, and demographics.

Animation visual of AVM's

Feedback loops are used to confirm and improve accuracy

On a monthly basis, we compare our previous valuations against the actual reported sales prices of homes. This allows us to continually evaluate the accuracy of our valuations, identify changes in local and regional markets, and tune our models and algorithms to account for local and regional changes.

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